Weekly Data Dump: April 29, 2019

“Man who picks bottom gets stinky fingers.”

-Old Chinese Proverb

Data Dump Truck

CORN MARKET UPDATE:

Corn Proj 4-28-19

WEEKLY CORN MARKETING THOUGHTS:

  • I’m running late this week because I was planting beans late last Friday to beat the rain!
  • While the past week in grain prices was UGLY, it sure feels like the market let loose a whole bunch of bad mojo.  While I’m not fond of picking bottoms, I will say that in the past few sessions the news flow feels a bit more supportive of grain prices.
  • Compared to a week ago, the outlook for planting progress looks considerably more suspect.  The planting pace the next two weeks will likely decide whether the market will care or not.
  • The seasonal tendency for price recovery is as strong as it gets the next two weeks, which will include the May WASDE supply & demand report.  The May WASDE is traditionally the first month to project fundamentals for the new crop year.
  • I’m feeling friendly enough with the idea of better corn prices that on Friday, and into the weekend I was mulling over converting some of my sales into “Minimum Price” contracts (i.e. re-ownership with a call option) as I am aggressively sold on 2018 and 2019 corn.  However, a large portion of my sales are via participation in averaging contracts and managed futures, so I really have plenty of upside opportunity left.  Therefore, buying a call option right now just feels like a speculative expense.
  • Speaking of the averaging contract, at three weeks in it is currently running at 3.84 CZ’19.
  • Regarding my sales, I’m currently 60% priced on old-crop, and 30% priced on 2019 new-crop, and about 15% priced on 2020 new-crop.  I’m still working on a good way to show my grain positions graphically, and I will hopefully have something to share in the next few weeks.
  • This week I’m not planning to make any new sales, but I still have four target orders working, with the first to hit at 3.94.  HOLD!

SOYBEAN MARKET UPDATE:

SB Proj 4-28-19

  • Did I already mention that the market was UGLY last week?
  • There was tons of blah blah blah about ASF, South American crops/currency, and some planting progress last week to kick the soybean market in the shins (against the normal seasonal tendency).
  • The market dropped hard last week and is now down to about the same level as the worst moments last summer.
  • Thankfully I’m nearly 100% sold on 2018 crop, and 27% sold for 2019, but the clock’s ticking for a some sort of bounce.  I’m going to continue to avoid making new soybean sales again this week, except our averaging contract will begin on Thursday, and I plan to put a few bushels into that to “round out” the program (so we can sell a round number of soybeans every week).

New Calf and the Goat Ranch!

Here’s why I didn’t spend any time working on the BullSheet this weekend!

Ruby and Diamond

The first of my super-spoiled heifers, Ruby, had her calf last week!  She’s been a great momma so far!

Goats 1Goats 2

Our kids got (goat) kids this weekend!  See them enjoying that Purina High-Octane feed!

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