“Man who picks bottom gets stinky fingers.”
-Old Chinese Proverb
CORN MARKET UPDATE:
WEEKLY CORN MARKETING THOUGHTS:
- I’m running late this week because I was planting beans late last Friday to beat the rain!
- While the past week in grain prices was UGLY, it sure feels like the market let loose a whole bunch of bad mojo. While I’m not fond of picking bottoms, I will say that in the past few sessions the news flow feels a bit more supportive of grain prices.
- Compared to a week ago, the outlook for planting progress looks considerably more suspect. The planting pace the next two weeks will likely decide whether the market will care or not.
- The seasonal tendency for price recovery is as strong as it gets the next two weeks, which will include the May WASDE supply & demand report. The May WASDE is traditionally the first month to project fundamentals for the new crop year.
- I’m feeling friendly enough with the idea of better corn prices that on Friday, and into the weekend I was mulling over converting some of my sales into “Minimum Price” contracts (i.e. re-ownership with a call option) as I am aggressively sold on 2018 and 2019 corn. However, a large portion of my sales are via participation in averaging contracts and managed futures, so I really have plenty of upside opportunity left. Therefore, buying a call option right now just feels like a speculative expense.
- Speaking of the averaging contract, at three weeks in it is currently running at 3.84 CZ’19.
- Regarding my sales, I’m currently 60% priced on old-crop, and 30% priced on 2019 new-crop, and about 15% priced on 2020 new-crop. I’m still working on a good way to show my grain positions graphically, and I will hopefully have something to share in the next few weeks.
- This week I’m not planning to make any new sales, but I still have four target orders working, with the first to hit at 3.94. HOLD!
SOYBEAN MARKET UPDATE:
- Did I already mention that the market was UGLY last week?
- There was tons of blah blah blah about ASF, South American crops/currency, and some planting progress last week to kick the soybean market in the shins (against the normal seasonal tendency).
- The market dropped hard last week and is now down to about the same level as the worst moments last summer.
- Thankfully I’m nearly 100% sold on 2018 crop, and 27% sold for 2019, but the clock’s ticking for a some sort of bounce. I’m going to continue to avoid making new soybean sales again this week, except our averaging contract will begin on Thursday, and I plan to put a few bushels into that to “round out” the program (so we can sell a round number of soybeans every week).
New Calf and the Goat Ranch!
Here’s why I didn’t spend any time working on the BullSheet this weekend!
The first of my super-spoiled heifers, Ruby, had her calf last week! She’s been a great momma so far!
Our kids got (goat) kids this weekend! See them enjoying that Purina High-Octane feed!