Just because it's raining doesn't mean you'll crash. Just because it's sunny doesn't mean you won't.I don't know the exact mile market I might crash my car, but I know the conditions that favor an accident.I don't believe anyone can predict the future; I do believe I can tell you the weather.This, and this alone, … Continue reading 2021 Pre-Harvest Grain Marketing Perspective
2020: Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
What can we learn from grain marketing in 2020? Placeholder for a review of 2020 marketing - Hopefully coming soon...
Data Dump: Corn Averaging Contract Progress Update
Last week we crossed the mid-way point on the corn averaging contract. Let's just agree that the average feels so much less than average this year. Through the close of the market last Friday, June 19th, the DEC corn accumulated average is $3.42, and the SEP corn accumulated average is $3.32. Unfortunately, the averaging program … Continue reading Data Dump: Corn Averaging Contract Progress Update
The Big Short?
Recently, a lot of folks like me have gotten our hopes up for a bit of a corn price recovery on the idea of "speculative short covering." As the theory goes, large speculators (i.e. hedge funds) have aggressively sold corn futures short since this spring as prices have fallen, but now are "too short" during … Continue reading The Big Short?
Houston, we have a problem…
In most years the 60-day period from the first week of May through the 4th of July provides the best opportunities for selling corn and soybeans for the rest of the year. Even though prices are painfully low right now, with the highs for the year most likely behind us, I believe producers need to … Continue reading Houston, we have a problem…
Data Dump: December 23, 2019
Merry Christmas! To say it's been a wild & frustrating time in the markets since I last wrote would be a major understatement! When I left off in July, my seasonal projections were both pointing towards lower prices in a major way, but I was anticipating some sort of bullish change in the markets … Continue reading Data Dump: December 23, 2019
Data Dump: July 17, 2019
CORN MARKET UPDATE: The July WASDE report was released last week, and it extends the string of real doosies for another month. Seemingly against all reason and logic, USDA actually INCREASED their production and carry-in estimates by 340 Mbu, and left consumption virtually unchanged, which INCREASED the ending stocks/use ratio back to a heavy 14%. … Continue reading Data Dump: July 17, 2019
Data Dump: July 6, 2019
CORN MARKET UPDATE: I just realized it's been a month since I last did a data dump. Sorry not sorry. It's been one heck of a month, and this is still a volunteer gig...and at least hopefully worth what you're paying for it... The corn market took it in the shorts for a couple of … Continue reading Data Dump: July 6, 2019
Besides the lax dress code and preoccupation with how much rain our neighbor got, one of the defining features of farmers is our willingness to live in a constant haze of uncertainty. Nearly every day we are faced with some decision requiring us to consider how some set of events is going to play out, … Continue reading Overestimation
Data Dump: June 4, 2019
CORN MARKET UPDATE: For the past two weeks the corn market has raced higher as #Plant19 has turned into an absolute dumpster fire across most of the cornbelt Thankfully, in our region, we've fared better than most, and I expect we should have at least an average crop, so producers should be making a base … Continue reading Data Dump: June 4, 2019