Last week we crossed the mid-way point on the corn averaging contract.  Let's just agree that the average feels so much less than average this year.  Through the close of the market last Friday, June 19th, the DEC corn accumulated average is $3.42, and the SEP corn accumulated average is $3.32.  Unfortunately, the averaging program … Continue reading Data Dump: Corn Averaging Contract Progress Update →

Recently, a lot of folks like me have gotten our hopes up for a bit of a corn price recovery on the idea of "speculative short covering."  As the theory goes, large speculators (i.e. hedge funds) have aggressively sold corn futures short since this spring as prices have fallen, but now are "too short" during … Continue reading The Big Short? →

In most years the 60-day period from the first week of May through the 4th of July provides the best opportunities for selling corn and soybeans for the rest of the year.  Even though prices are painfully low right now, with the highs for the year most likely behind us, I believe producers need to … Continue reading Houston, we have a problem… →

  Merry Christmas!  To say it's been a wild & frustrating time in the markets since I last wrote would be a major understatement!  When I left off in July, my seasonal projections were both pointing towards lower prices in a major way, but I was anticipating some sort of bullish change in the markets … Continue reading Data Dump: December 23, 2019 →

CORN MARKET UPDATE: The July WASDE report was released last week, and it extends the string of real doosies for another month.  Seemingly against all reason and logic, USDA actually INCREASED their production and carry-in estimates by 340 Mbu, and left consumption virtually unchanged, which INCREASED the ending stocks/use ratio back to a heavy 14%.  … Continue reading Data Dump: July 17, 2019 →

CORN MARKET UPDATE: I just realized it's been a month since I last did a data dump.  Sorry not sorry.  It's been one heck of a month, and this is still a volunteer gig...and at least hopefully worth what you're paying for it... The corn market took it in the shorts for a couple of … Continue reading Data Dump: July 6, 2019 →

Besides the lax dress code and preoccupation with how much rain our neighbor got, one of the defining features of farmers is our willingness to live in a constant haze of uncertainty.  Nearly every day we are faced with some decision requiring us to consider how some set of events is going to play out, … Continue reading Overestimation →

CORN MARKET UPDATE: For the past two weeks the corn market has raced higher as #Plant19 has turned into an absolute dumpster fire across most of the cornbelt Thankfully, in our region, we've fared better than most, and I expect we should have at least an average crop, so producers should be making a base … Continue reading Data Dump: June 4, 2019 →

  CORN MARKET UPDATE: During the past 10 days or so the market is finally realizing what we've been saying about #Plant19 - We ain't gonna see a 15Bbu crop...and perhaps not even a 14Bbu crop! It feels like we're rallying like it's 2010 all over again, but we all need to step back and … Continue reading Data Dump: May 22, 2019 →

  CORN MARKET UPDATE: WEEKLY CORN MARKETING THOUGHTS: Another week, another leg down in the grain markets, while planting delays pile on.  If I did not already have the majority of my 2018 and 2019 crops priced, I would be lowering targets and looking to sell more on any bounce.  However, I do have plenty … Continue reading Weekly Data Dump: May 13, 2019 →