Groundhog Day

OK OK, so this is a day early, but welcome to Groundhog Day in the soybean market!  Doesn’t it seem like the soybean market has been quietly creeping higher, but every time we have “good” news, we get rewarded with a price dump?  Yesterday the after-hours markets were all goofy because some reporter screwed up quotes from the trade delegation’s press conference and reported: “China to begin buying 5mmt of beans per day”!  For the rest of us who don’t use the metric system, that’s 184 million bushels…per day.  It was fun while it lasted, but by this morning the euphoria wore off and now we know that China will buy 5 mmt…period…and we don’t know if that includes purchases already in process.  Everybody needs to remember: regardless of whether we have tariffs or not, there are too many soybeans on the planet, and the biggest consumer is slowing down.  I suspect managed money is gunshy to short the soy complex until negotiations are finished, for better or worse.  I’ll have more to say on this over the next few weeks, but in the meantime: Sell the Rips, Don’t Buy the Dips.


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